Long-term Bitcoin holders are accumulating more Bitcoin while short-term holders react to market volatility. This analysis uses the sell-side risk ratio, a metric indicating the likelihood of holders selling their Bitcoin based on past behavior and current market conditions. A low ratio suggests holders are unlikely to sell, while a high ratio indicates increased selling pressure.
Long-term holders remain unfazed. Their sell-side risk ratio saw only a minor increase between March 23 and April 10, suggesting they are not panicking despite geopolitical tensions and volatility in derivatives and ETF markets. This behavior aligns with a continued accumulation phase. Their 30-day net position change has remained positive, growing from 0.17% on March 12 to 2.19% by April 10. This indicates a steady flow of Bitcoin into stronger, long-term hands, either through direct purchases or by coins maturing into the long-term holder category.
This accumulation is notable considering recent price action. Bitcoin traded above $82,000 before dropping closer to $76,000 around April 10. Long-term holders continued buying during this dip, suggesting they are not concerned by the retracement and view the current market as an opportunity to accumulate. Historically, long-term holders tend to distribute during periods of extreme price growth, not during macro-driven pullbacks.
Short-term holders present a contrasting picture. Their sell-side risk ratio has been much more volatile since the beginning of the year, fluctuating significantly. Between April 6 and 10, it jumped sharply, coinciding with escalating US-China tensions, a broader sell-off in risk assets, and a significant outflow from spot Bitcoin ETFs. This heightened sensitivity to market triggers suggests weaker
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